How Trump revived Canada’s ailing Liberals

Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has won Canada’s federal election. At the time of writing, it has picked up about 42 per cent of the vote, narrowly beating the Conservatives into second place. It’s still too soon to tell if the Liberals have won enough seats to form a majority government. In any case, it marks a remarkable turnaround for a party that looked dead and buried just a few months ago.

After all, this was an election the Liberals should never have had a chance of winning. Having been in power since 2015, their stock had plummeted to unprecedented lows amid a housing crisis, high levels of immigration and above all profound economic stagnation – indeed, over the past decade, Canada has recorded the second-lowest growth rate of any OECD member. It came as little surprise when, in early January, the colossally unpopular prime minister and Liberal leader, Justin Trudeau, announced his resignation. The Liberals looked done for.

Back then, the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, were resurgent. They held what looked like an unassailable lead in the polls, at over 40 per cent, while the Liberals were flatlining at just over 20 per cent. Poilievre looked certain to be Canada’s next prime minister.

Now, just a few months later, the Liberals have won a fourth successive election. And not only have the Conservatives been defeated, but Poilievre has also lost his seat. This is a spectacular reversal of the two parties’ fortunes. And what makes it so incredible is that it is almost entirely down to the actions of one man, outside of Canada – namely, US president Donald J Trump. His talk of annexing Canada, of making it the 51st state of America, and his chaotic tariff war have seemingly awakened Canadian patriotism and driven voters back into the arms of the Carney’s Liberals.

Back in December, when Trump was mocking Trudeau as the ‘governor’ of the ‘Great State of Canada’, most observers dismissed it as a joke at the expense of a woke adversary, a leader the president-elect had never got along with. But throughout the first few months of this year, as Trump waged his on-again, off-again tariff war with the US’s northern neighbours, the jokey jibes sounded more and more like a threat to Canadian ears. The talk of turning Canada into an American state no longer looked like undiplomatic humour. It sounded like imperialistic bullying.

Trump’s trade-warring and annexation talk has transformed Canadian politics. The crude sabre-rattling from the White House has stirred a latent sense of national pride, even among those traditionally less patriotic sections of society – and of course, it’s stirred up a fair amount of anti-American feeling, too. Canadians have been booing the US national anthem before American and Canadian hockey matches, and boycotting goods from their southern rivals.

The Liberal Party, under the dull technocratic leadership of Mark Carney (a former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England), has been transformed. It has taken advantage of these expressions of Canadian nationalism to talk tough on standing up to America. Above all, it has turned itself into a vehicle of anti-Trump sentiment. Even Carney, a staid managerialist, has begun to pose as a Maple Leaf-jumper-wearing patriot, ever ready with a strong word for the US. His victory speech was a case in point. ‘America wants our land, our resources, our water’, he told supporters. ‘These are not idle threats. Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never happen.’

At the same time, Trump’s threats and jibes have proven a kiss of death to the Conservative Party and especially Poilievre. A hard-talking, right-wing populist, Poilievre had long been praised by Trump and his supporters. He was often cast by friends and foes alike as a Canadian version of The Donald. And for much of last year, as Trump circled the White House for a second term, there was talk of the populist wave delivering Poilievre to power. But when it became clear that Make America Great Again seemed to involve Making Canada American, Poilievre became tainted by association.

The Conservatives have spent much of the electoral campaign desperately trying to distance themselves from Trump and challenge the economic aggression emanating from Washington. But it has been to little avail, as the now seat-less Poilievre has discovered to his cost.

There’s little to suggest that the Liberals have the solutions to Canada’s deep-seated problems. Carney is a new leader, but he’s just about the only thing that’s fresh about the incoming government. From its policies to its personnel, it is virtually identical to Trudeau’s disastrous administrations. It represents a political and economic orthodoxy that has failed countless times before.

But then, this wasn’t an election about Canada’s future – it was an election about the present occupant of the White House. Trump has pulled off something many would have thought and hoped impossible – he has single-handedly revived the fortunes of Canada’s decrepit establishment.

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives may have been bound to reap the whirlwind of anti-Trumpism. While Poilievre has been smart enough to focus on winning around Canadians, rather than courting MAGA approval south of the border, the Liberals succeeded in tarring him with Trump. Still, the election serves as a reminder that for populists to thrive, they must focus on their own nations and citizens, rather than tether themselves to Trumpism.

Tim Black is associate editor of spiked.